Diploma Thesis

Geovisual Storytelling of Climate-Induced Migration Patterns in Urban Environments

A dual-pace geovisual storytelling platform comparing slow-onset drought migration across Europe (2015 to 2024) with rapid-onset displacement in Southern Malawi following Tropical Cyclone Freddy (2023).

Author
Demet Akbaba
PLUS Supervisor
Prof. Dr. Stefan Lang
UPOL Supervisor
Mgr. Radek Barvíř, Ph.D.
Programme
Erasmus Mundus Joint Master’s Degree, Copernicus Master in Digital Earth
Institutions
Paris-Lodron University Salzburg & Palacký University Olomouc, Department of Geoinformatics
Submitted
July 2026
18Map Outputs
2Case Studies
10Year Span, 2015 to 2024
6Validation Checks

Objectives

“The objective of this thesis is to design a set of maps and non-spatial data visualisations forming a storytelling platform presenting migration trends driven by climate stressors. The student will investigate available data sources, with particular attention to those provided by programmes such as COPERNICUS.” Source: Assignment of Diploma Thesis (PAAV)

This thesis illustrates how geovisual storytelling methods can be designed to communicate the patterns and spatial dynamics of climate-induced human displacement to urban planners and policy makers. Two contrasting case studies are compared: slow-onset migration across urban regions of Europe, driven by cumulative drought stress, and rapid-onset displacement in southern Malawi following Tropical Cyclone Freddy. A multi-technique cartographic map suite is produced using ArcGIS Pro and assembled into this website. The resulting platform is descriptive by design: it visualizes where and how severely climate-related displacement patterns occur, without asserting a causal relationship between climate stress and migration.

Methods and Workflow

Data Sources

  • Copernicus Climate Data Store & Land Monitoring Service
  • Eurostat & ARDECO
  • IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix
  • OCHA / Humanitarian Data Exchange
  • Sentinel-2 & Planet imagery

Software

  • ArcGIS Pro: all cartographic processing and design
  • QGIS: data integrity checks
  • Google Forms: user-testing questionnaire
  • Canva: A2 poster design

Cartographic Techniques

  • Graduated symbols (Wurman dots)
  • Choropleth mapping (annual sequence)
  • Bivariate colour matrices
  • Origin-destination flow mapping
  • Rule-based regional typology
Methodology workflow flowchart: data acquisition, processing in ArcGIS Pro, expert review and validation, cartographic design system, web publishing, user testing, converging into a single final outputs box
End-to-end workflow, from data acquisition through expert review and validation to final outputs.

A consistent cartographic design system, combining a shared colour palette, typography, and layout grid, is applied within each case study, with a deliberate, explained register shift between the Europe and Malawi maps, reflecting that slow-onset and rapid-onset displacement are genuinely different phenomena. The 18 finished maps are exported from ArcGIS Pro and presented below in the same sequence as the thesis chapters.

Map Outputs

Click any map to open a larger version. Full-resolution appendix exports are included in the thesis attachments. Prefer a guided walkthrough instead of browsing freely? Read the maps as one connected story →

Europe Case Study: Slow-Onset Migration (2015 to 2024)

Human Canvas map, Wurman dot population density across Europe
1. Human Canvas (Wurman Dots)
Climate Stress Grid map for 2018
2. Climate Stress Grid 2018
Climate Stress Grid map for 2022
3. Climate Stress Grid 2022
Economic Magnet map, 2018 to 2022 employment ratio change
4. Economic Magnet
Demographic Heartbeat map for 2015
5. Demographic Heartbeat 2015
Demographic Heartbeat map for 2016
6. Demographic Heartbeat 2016
Demographic Heartbeat map for 2017
7. Demographic Heartbeat 2017
Demographic Heartbeat map for 2018
8. Demographic Heartbeat 2018
Demographic Heartbeat map for 2020
10. Demographic Heartbeat 2020
Demographic Heartbeat map for 2021
11. Demographic Heartbeat 2021
Demographic Heartbeat map for 2022
12. Demographic Heartbeat 2022
Demographic Heartbeat map for 2023
13. Demographic Heartbeat 2023
Demographic Heartbeat map for 2024
14. Demographic Heartbeat 2024

Malawi Case Study: Rapid-Onset Displacement (2023)

Displacement Flow map, Southern Malawi after Cyclone Freddy
17. Displacement Flow
Bivariate Susceptibility map, population density change and landslide exposure
18. Bivariate Susceptibility

Results

In Europe, outgoing migration does not rise in the same year as the 2018 or 2022 drought shocks. A delayed rise appears only in 2019 to 2021, in a German Rhine-Main cluster of regions, but this overlaps with the COVID-19 pandemic and cannot be attributed to climate stress with confidence. The Typology maps reinforce the disconnect: severe-stress regions in Spain and, by 2022, France remain attractive immigration destinations even as their climate worsens.

In Malawi, displacement origins concentrate in the flood-prone districts struck by Cyclone Freddy, while destinations cluster tightly around Blantyre, and demographic pressure and landslide risk co-occur almost exclusively in the city’s informal hillside wards. Both patterns are presented descriptively, with no causal test applied.

Conclusion

The central result is that urban exposure to climate-induced migration takes at least two structurally different forms, depending on whether the city sits downstream of, or directly within, the climate event. Building on this, the thesis contributes a sub-national, dual-pace geovisual storytelling platform, built from more than ten complementary ArcGIS Pro cartographic techniques, for planning and policy audiences. Unlike a dashboard such as the IOM’s Climate Mobility Impacts Dashboard, it presents a deliberately diverse suite of techniques as one coherent, consistently designed story, without claiming a causal relationship between climate stress and migration.

Summary

This thesis shows how geovisual storytelling can communicate climate-induced human displacement to urban planners and policy makers, comparing slow-onset drought migration across Europe (2015 to 2024) with rapid-onset displacement in Southern Malawi after Tropical Cyclone Freddy (2023). Eighteen thematic maps, produced in ArcGIS Pro, are assembled into this website using more than ten complementary visualization techniques. Full methods and results are documented in the thesis text, available in the Downloads section below.

Contact

Demet Akbaba
Department of Geoinformatics
Paris-Lodron University Salzburg & Palacký University Olomouc
demet.akbaba@stud.plus.ac.at